Polling
I’m also sick of the meticulous poll tracking that has been going on. There are new polls every day, and they tend to follow the predictable jumps around conventions, VP announcements, etc. Maybe I’m just a cynic when it comes to statistics, but I don’t feel like one candidate jumping ahead of another for a few days in a few polls is anything to get riled up over. The only poll that really matters is the one on November 4th.
Jamie has some good advice about polling, and how volatile the polls are day to day, and even week to week. The only thing that I can add to the discussion is that there are more statistical landmines in polling numbers, such as the Keith Number, which will throw all your hopes out the window.
I was talking to Obie today during lunch while we watched the economy take a nosedive, and he asked me if the prophesy I made earlier in the year was still valid. I think it still is. No matter what happens, there is still a good chance that McCain is going to win. Even with the economy going badly, McCain is still a force to be reckoned with.